Double chance is one of the safest football betting markets. You cover two of the three possible results — home win, draw, or away win — in a single bet. The trade-off is lower odds. Understanding when double chance is worth backing, and when it is just a diluted 1X2 bet, is the key skill.
What are the three double chance options?
| Selection | Wins if… |
|---|---|
| 1X (Home or Draw) | Home team wins OR match ends in a draw |
| X2 (Draw or Away) | Match ends in a draw OR away team wins |
| 12 (Home or Away) | Home team wins OR away team wins (no draw) |
The 12 selection is unique — it covers both teams winning but loses only if the match ends level. It is popular when a draw seems unlikely between two attacking sides.
How are double chance odds calculated?
Double chance odds are derived directly from the 1X2 market by combining two probabilities.
Example: Suppose 1X2 probabilities (after removing the vig) are:
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Home win | 55% |
| Draw | 25% |
| Away win | 20% |
Then:
| Double chance | Probability | Fair decimal odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1X | 55% + 25% = 80% | 1.25 |
| X2 | 25% + 20% = 45% | 2.22 |
| 12 | 55% + 20% = 75% | 1.33 |
The bookmaker then applies a margin on top, typically reducing returns by 5–8%.
A worked example
Manchester City host Burnley. City are strong favourites:
- Home win implied probability: 70%
- Draw: 20%
- Away win: 10%
The 1X (City win or draw) selection covers 90% of outcomes. At fair odds that would pay 1.11. After the bookmaker margin, you might see 1.06 or 1.08.
Is that worth it? Rarely. If your goal is simply "not to lose", the near-certainty of a City result is already captured in a simple 1X2 bet at much better returns. Double chance on a heavy favourite adds almost nothing.
The value in double chance appears in competitive fixtures where neither team dominates.
When double chance makes sense
Closely contested away games: If an away side is genuinely capable of winning but the home advantage is real, covering the draw and away win (X2) can be a smart hedge.
When the draw is statistically elevated: Some matchup types — mid-table clashes late in the season, high-stakes cup games, rivalry fixtures — produce draws at higher-than-average rates. A 1X or X2 covering the draw can reflect true probabilities more accurately.
When you have conviction on "not losing": If your model gives a team 60% chance to avoid defeat, and the X2 is priced at 1.55 (implying 65%), that is a borderline call but the edge is small. Look for 15%+ discrepancy before committing.
Double chance and expected value
Double chance does not give you better odds — it gives you wider coverage. To have positive expected value, the combined probability of the two outcomes you cover must be higher than what the bookmaker implies.
Formula:
EV = (your probability estimate × decimal odds) − 1
If your X2 estimate is 52% and the offered odds are 2.20:
EV = (0.52 × 2.20) − 1 = 1.144 − 1 = +14.4%
That is a reasonable edge and worth considering. If your estimate is 45% and odds are 2.20:
EV = (0.45 × 2.20) − 1 = 0.99 − 1 = −1% — skip it.
Double chance in Sportdico predictions
Our model calculates 1X2 probabilities for every match. When we see a double chance selection where our combined probability exceeds the bookmaker's implied probability by 10% or more, we flag it in our tips.
Frequently asked questions
Can double chance be used in accumulators?
Yes. Because the individual odds are lower, accumulator returns are reduced. Balance coverage against the diminishing returns of stacking too many double chance legs.
Does double chance apply to extra time?
No — like most football markets, double chance is settled on the 90-minute result unless stated otherwise.
Is double chance the same as Asian handicap 0?
Not exactly. Asian handicap 0 (also called a draw no bet) only covers win or void — it does not pay for a draw. Double chance with 1X or X2 pays if the match ends in a draw.
See Double Chance predictions
Sportdico's Double Chance market page explains today's coverage and will publish Double Chance tips when our pipeline adds this market.