1X2 is the most fundamental football betting market. It covers the three possible outcomes of a 90-minute match: home win (1), draw (X), or away win (2). Every other football market — BTTS, Over/Under, Asian Handicap — is derived from or layered on top of 1X2.
What 1, X and 2 mean
| Symbol | Outcome | Wins when |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Home win | Home team scores more goals than away team after 90 min |
| X | Draw | Both teams score the same number of goals after 90 min |
| 2 | Away win | Away team scores more goals than home team after 90 min |
Extra time and penalties do not count in the standard 1X2 market. If a cup match goes to extra time after a 1–1 draw, the 1X2 result is still X (draw) regardless of what happens next.
How bookmakers price 1X2
Bookmakers use implied probability. If Arsenal are given a 60 % chance of beating Chelsea, Chelsea 25 %, and draw 15 %, the raw odds would be:
- Arsenal: 1 / 0.60 = 1.67
- Draw: 1 / 0.15 = 6.67
- Chelsea: 1 / 0.25 = 4.00
But a bookmaker adds an overround (their profit margin, typically 5–8 %). The displayed odds are reduced so the implied probabilities sum to 105–108 % rather than 100 %. At 106 % overround, the odds above might become 1.57 / 6.30 / 3.75.
Stripping the overround recovers the bookmaker's best estimate of the true probabilities — which is how Sportdico's market signal works.
The draw problem
The draw is systematically the hardest outcome to predict. Draws occur in roughly 25–28 % of top-division European matches — meaning they're just frequent enough to be priced at 3.0–3.8, but just rare enough that even correctly identifying draw-likely matches is very uncertain.
Our model assigns draw probability separately from the simple complement of home/away. We use the Dixon-Coles correction for low-scoring matches (0–0 and 1–1 are more common than a naïve Poisson would predict), but we still avoid publishing X as a primary tip unless the market and model agree with high confidence. That threshold is rarely met.
When to pick Home (1)
Strong 1 signals:
- Home team is a clear favourite (implied probability > 55 %)
- Home team's form in the last 5 home matches is strong (W or D in 4+)
- Away team's away form is poor (≤ 1 win in last 5)
- Head-to-head record heavily favours the home side
When to pick Away (2)
Strong 2 signals:
- Away team is significantly stronger in league position and xG
- Home team is in a goals drought (< 1 goal per game in last 5)
- Away team has a strong recent away record (2+ wins in last 5)
- Tournament context: away team needs a win to stay in competition, home team is safe
When to pick Draw (X)
Draw signals are weaker, but:
- Both teams are evenly matched (implied probabilities within 5 %)
- Derby or high-stakes fixture where both sides play cautiously
- Head-to-head history shows multiple draws
- Both teams have scored fewer than 1.2 goals per game recently
Frequently asked questions
Does 1X2 include extra time?
No. The standard 1X2 market settles on the result after 90 minutes plus referee-added time. Extra time and penalty shootouts are excluded.
What is Double Chance?
Double Chance lets you cover two of the three 1X2 outcomes: Home or Draw (1X), Home or Away (12), or Draw or Away (X2). You win if either of your two chosen outcomes occurs. The odds are lower but you're betting on two thirds of all possible outcomes.
Is 1X2 the best football market for beginners?
It is the most intuitive. But "most intuitive" does not mean most profitable — bookmakers price 1X2 very efficiently because it is the most liquid market. BTTS and Over/Under can sometimes offer better value because they attract less betting volume, leading to slightly softer lines.
What does the home advantage add in probability terms?
Across Europe's top five leagues, the home team wins roughly 45 % of matches, the away team 28 %, and 27 % are draws. This built-in home advantage comes from crowd noise, travel fatigue for the away team, and familiarity with the pitch. Some leagues (Bundesliga) show smaller home advantage than others (La Liga).
See today's 1X2 predictions
Sportdico publishes 1X2 tips for every covered match, with model probabilities and a confidence score for each outcome.